Chains of Conjecture: A Multi-Path Decision-Making Method

AUTHOR’S NOTE: A single run of cards can be silent, inconclusive or even contradictory in its testimony when the querent is facing a “multiple-choice” dilemma within a decision-making scenario. This is where having two or more chains of cards to analyze as a group comes into its own. Each option offers a separate narrative regarding the likelihood of success, effectively creating a comparative multi-reading array. I recommend using a different deck for each chain so all of the cards have an equal chance of appearing in each one. Any number of options can be explored in this way, and reversals can be applied to convey resistance to advancement of the matter at any juncture. Judgment may still be required to single out the “winning combination.”

Albano-Waite Tarot card backs, copyright of US Games Systems Inc, Stamford, CT.

The top row provides an intuitive hunch (or at best a subconscious “educated guess”) regarding what each path offers in the way of opportunity. (The querent may have already researched this, so it could be more than an assumption.)

The second row shows what each one looks like “coming out of the gate.”

The third row is the first half of a “cost/benefit analysis,” suggesting what could gained in each instance.

The fourth row indicates the loss that might be incurred by following each of the proposed paths.

The fifth row gives the outcome in the form of what each choice will deliver in terms of satisfaction.

Here is a three-chain example reading to demonstrate its use, with three possible paths and three alternate outcomes covered by the forecast. The description of each option is shown in the graphic. I happen to have three copies of the pocket-sized Retro-Thoth Tarot, which is an advantage when several chains must be populated. (I just have to get them all back in the right boxes when done, something that is never guaranteed.)

Reversals hold sway throughout much of this reading, and the numerous court cards offer only one exemplar of maturity, the Queen of Wands, although its reversal spoils the impression of dignity. All four Princesses appear (one twice) and one of the Princes, so youthful enthusiasm permeates the last half of the narrative and attempts to beat back the abundant evidence of discord shown by the nine reversed cards.

Thoth Tarot, copyright of US Games Systems Inc, Stamford, CT

Option #1 suggests that if I move too rapidly, I will be on my own and may be sticking my neck out unnecessarily. The subject will dig its heels in and resist furtherance. Gains will be scant due to impracticality, and I may lose respect if I attempt to push my agenda through prematurely. But in the end the opportunity will slip away. The obstinacy of Earth dominates here.

Option #2 shows my ego taking a major hit due to even more vigorous resistance that has had time to find its voice. Gains are again slim. this time because of waiting too long and allowing the harvest to spoil. Bitterness can be transcended by taking a stoic view of the matter, but it won’t taste any better as a result. Fire and Air are prominent, providing negligible “staying power.”

Option #3 implies “going nowhere fast,” which is the gist of this path. A roll-back of optimism is indicated, but renewed encouragement may be forthcoming from the object of my attention. In the long run, it may be possible to leave the threat of defeat behind and receive gracious acceptance. The elements are scattered, with only the Fire of the Princess of Wands holding a slight edge, and that’s not much to count on.

On balance, it looks like the “do nothing” option will have the most favorable consequences, but it will take some time to get there. “Wait and see” comes in second, and there is nothing to be gained by being too precipitous under Option #1.

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