NFL Football Forecast: 2025 AFC Championship – Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

UPDATE: This one turned out to be pretty much “on the money.” The final score of 32-29 in favor of the Chiefs closely agrees with my “high-end” prediction of 35-24 with Kansas City on top at the end of the game. I’ll take it as a forecasting success.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: I decided to post this today instead of tomorrow (“game day”) so those who are interested in such things will have time to digest the information. If I elect to examine the Eagles-Commanders NFC Championship game, I will post the reading in the morning.

As usual, I become more interested in team sports when the season-ending championships roll around because they offer a perfect opportunity to test my predictive methods when stakes are at their highest and games are likely to be sharply-contested. (The rest of the year, I like to say that there is nothing less relevant to my life than Hollywood actors and professional athletes.) Here I’m tackling the NFL’s American Football Conference championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs using my “Enemy at the Gates” conflict-resolution spread.

Since the Chiefs are hosting the Bills as “home team,” I placed them in the top row of the spread as is my custom. However, when it comes to quarterly scoring, I look at the point spread as showing by how much the leading team is ahead without automatically assuming it is the team represented by that row. This allows some flexibility for the lead to change hands from one quarter to the next. Once again, I chose the Chariot – “triumph in practical matters” – as the “Opportunity” card at the left showing the “prize” being sought.

Thoth Tarot, copyright of US Games Systems Inc, Stamford, CT

Before I get into the card-by-card analysis, I want to mention that there are a great many low-numbered cards in this pull, suggesting that the game will be a closely-fought defensive affair with no offensive “break-out” moment by either team until the last quarter. This will be reflected in the end-of-quarter point ranges.

Regarding the relative “Strength” of the two teams, the Chiefs come across as highly mobile, which could indicate a “run-and-gun” approach that attempts to “steamroller” the Bills; there is a great deal of optimism in the Wheel of Fortune. Buffalo, on the other hand, appears to mount a more methodical attack that attempts to stay with their game plan. Despite these different styles of play, neither appears to gain a significant advantage, indicated by the fact that the scoring gap should be no more than a single field goal (or at most two) at the end of the First Quarter.

In the area of “Weakness,” the Chiefs could run into some overly-abstract theorizing in their strategy that takes the edge off their potent offense. (I doubt it means “trick plays,” just more clandestine maneuvering that might be driven by concerns over “signal-stealing” by the Bills.) For their part, Buffalo may run dry of “brilliant ideas” in their tactical game and begin to lose momentum. However, the score appears to be relatively “grid-locked” by halftime, with the leading team ahead by six or seven points (two field goals or a touchdown).

The “Edge” cards show whether either team exhibits a decided advantage as the game progresses. With the Ace of Wands, the Chiefs would seem to be galvanized by a renewed sense of purpose after struggling in the Second Quarter. The Bills with the 6 of Swords can’t seem to “jump-start” themselves as a more energetic contender. By the end of the Third Quarter, the leading team should be up by another touchdown, making the gap in the vicinity of 14 points.

The “Allies’ Strength” cards are intended to show how potent each team’s offensive line is. With Lust (aka Strength) the Chiefs would seem to gain a commanding advantage by capitalizing on the “ignition” that occurred with the Ace of Wands. The 4 of Swords suggests that Buffalo is still “thinking it over” without coming up with a powerful counterattack. The team that is ahead at the end of the game could stretch the lead to three touchdowns with a Fourth-Quarter breakout. If I were a betting man, I would probably put my money on the Chiefs.

To recap, the Chiefs have three dominant Fire cards out of the four, conveying the idea of offensive “fire in the belly,” while all four of the Bill’s cards are more cerebral than visceral: they come across as “cold” compared to the Chief’s “hot.” However, this could confer a knack for “picking apart” the Chief’s defense.

The fifth set of cards is a numerical roll-up of the first four in each row, showing the relative “Chance to Win” for each team. The Devil for the Chiefs suggests a punishing defensive effort that could shut down the Bills’ ability to get their offense moving. The Star for Buffalo is too much like “wishful thinking” to count on the hope it typically conveys (as the Everly Brothers once sang “Wishing won’t make it so/I proved it long ago”). Then there is the Bon Jovi song Living on a Prayer: “Whooah, we’re half way there/Living on a prayer,” making me think the Bills’ best effort won’t be “enough by half.”

Art (aka Temperance) as the “Decision” card is another Fire card that echoes the “fire-in-the-belly” motif of Kansas City’s series. However, it is a card of exquisite finesse that symbolizes what I think of as “performing a high-wire act without a safety net.” While it is aligned much better with the Chief’s prospects, it could still signify a “crash-and-burn” scenario, particularly if injuries take a toll during the game should the Chiefs attempt to over-leverage their offensive primacy. In that case, the Devil might “pull the rug out from under them” before they can reach the finish line.

If I were to hazard a guess as to the final score (never a sure thing as most of my previous readings have demonstrated), I would propose that the winner will best the loser by a tally of 35 to 14 at the high end, or 28 to 7 at the low end. However, with two evenly-matched teams I might shrink either span by roughly 10 points. So let’s call it 35-to-24 or 28 to 17. Except for a “flat” 2nd Quarter, the cards very much favor the Chiefs to win.

Leave a comment