NFL Football: Patriots at Seahawks, September 9, 2026

UPDATE: It looks like the Seahawks found the pulse of all those reversed trump cards after all. The only thing I can say about this reading - other than that I'm getting better at "hedging" - is that the final point spread was within range of the predicted single touchdown, although on the wrong side. … Continue reading NFL Football: Patriots at Seahawks, September 9, 2026

A National Football League Game Prediction Template

AUTHOR'S NOTE: It's that time of year again, at least for US sports fans. Since 2018 I've been using my "Enemy at the Gate" conflict-resolution spread to predict the outcome of National Football League games. Over the years I've occasionally tinkered with the original design for that specific purpose, so I decided to formalize the … Continue reading A National Football League Game Prediction Template

NFL Football: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens, 11/23/25

UPDATE: This one turned out to be a winner! AUTHOR'S NOTE: Let's try this again with a modified spread. I fixed a conceptual flaw in the design to better align the offense and defense factors between the two teams; in the last reading everything I said about the superiority of the Bills' defense should have … Continue reading NFL Football: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens, 11/23/25

Thursday Night Football: Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills, 11/20/25

UPDATE: Looks like I had the defensive advantage on the wrong side; I over-complicated what should have been a head-to-head comparison and missed the mark. This spread needed some work to sort out the offense/defense pairing. In practice, the original spread did not lend itself to a clean judgment regarding the forces at work, so … Continue reading Thursday Night Football: Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills, 11/20/25

Super Bowl LIX Forecast: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

UPDATE: My formal prediction could not have been more wrong, but it's very interesting that the "Oh-by-the-way" comment I made at the end of the essay was almost completely on-target: it proposed an unimaginable 48-to-28 score in favor of the Eagles, when the actual score was 40-22 with the Eagles handily defeating the Chiefs. As … Continue reading Super Bowl LIX Forecast: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Football Forecast: 2025 NFC Championship – Washington at Philadelphia

UPDATE: Well, this one certainly missed the mark except for the fact that it got the winner right (although the odds-makers already told us that). The Eagles reeled off three unanswered touchdowns in the 4th Quarter, without which the final would have been 34-23, much closer to one of the predicted outcomes of 31-24. The … Continue reading NFL Football Forecast: 2025 NFC Championship – Washington at Philadelphia

NFL Football Forecast: 2025 AFC Championship – Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

UPDATE: This one turned out to be pretty much "on the money." The final score of 32-29 in favor of the Chiefs closely agrees with my "high-end" prediction of 35-24 with Kansas City on top at the end of the game. I'll take it as a forecasting success. AUTHOR'S NOTE: I decided to post this … Continue reading NFL Football Forecast: 2025 AFC Championship – Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs