AUTHOR’S NOTE: It was probably inevitable but I have to mention before continuing that Donald Trump looms large in this midterm election forecast as the Emperor, first upright as “Trump the Enabler” in the Republicans’ “Chance to Win” position, and then reversed as “Trump the Adversary” in the Democrats’ “Weaknesses” position. In the first instance, the Emperor (“Dad”) is the “numerical essence” card for the series, providing the overarching theme for the Republicans’ shaky leverage, and this election is seen as a test of Trump’s continued influence in the party. More on that later.

Here I’m using my “Enemy at the Gate” conflict-resolution spread to compare the likelihood of coming out on top for the two political factions in the upcoming US Congressional election. The new wrinkle in this year’s midterm battle is the rise of the far-left socialist wing of the Democratic Party. I’m using my favorite sociopolitical deck, Brian Williams’ PoMo (Post-Modern) Tarot for this analysis.

As usual for this type of confrontation, I chose the Chariot (PoMo’s “Wheels”) as the “Opportunity” card reflecting the victory that is at stake in the contest.

In the “Strengths” position, the 10 of TVs (Swords) in this particular deck appears to signify the onslaught of negative media attention the Republicans have been unleashing on the ultra-liberal candidates from the other side, some of whom embrace Marxist philosophies. This education/propaganda campaign (with a de rigeur “affordability” spin) seems to be the main thrust of the conservative argument. The mere thought of a Communist insurgency in US government (predicted by Nikita Khrushchev in 1956) scares many people.

For the Democrats, “Money Man” (King of Pentacles) leaves no doubt that their strengths lie in the deep pockets of the socialist billionaires who are funding the more radical contingent of the party.

In the “Weaknesses” position, the Republicans have the 5 of Bills (Pentacles). In the next couple of days I will be posting an essay on “The Tarot Fives as Difficult People,” and my condensed commentary on the suit of Pentacles is as follows:

“5 of Pentacles/Disks (Worry): This card is detrimental to a person’s sense of self-worth and can result in excessive pessimism. Trying futilely to measure up to expectations can be a persistent theme. When a Five is reversed, the associated flaws can be concealed behind a facade of coping mechanisms such as avoidance or false positivity. Those who must deal with them may be challenged to find the real person hidden behind the strategic mask.”

As a weakness for the Republicans, this could be read as identifying the growing population of defectors within the GOP who are becoming increasingly alarmed about continuing to support Trump’s agenda in light of his extreme unpopularity with the general public.

For the Democrats, the major weakness is clearly their fixation on ad hominem attacks against “Trump the Adversary.” It’s like they’re telling one another “Screw policy, let’s all get together and diss Trump and that will endear us to the voters.” Prominent Democratic pundits have been cautioning that this lockstep show of perverse solidarity most likely won’t be enough to swing the electorate en masse far enough to the left. The complaint has been that the party has become more about invective than issues; they need a coherent platform that speaks to social and economic unrest, not just a whipping-boy.

The “Edge” position is intended to show where each opponent has a “leg up” on the other. For the Republicans, I’m interpreting “Mom” (the Empress) as describing the Mom-and-apple-pie “breadbasket” of the county’s heartland, a traditional Republican stronghold. I see no reason for that to change this time around. The presence of both “Mom” and “Dad” in this spread suggests that the US Constitution is the bedrock on which Republicans are making their stand.

The Democrat’s “edge” is much less apparent. The reversal of the 6 of Bills (Pentacles) – normally a card of material success – implies that the ideological division within the party could siphon off resources and funnel them to fringe candidates who will wind up squandering them in a futile attempt to prevail in the general election. This card as an advantage could mean that party leaders will get their arms around the threat in time to defuse it, but time is quickly running out. Any amount of wasted potential could go straight to the bottom line in prompting a substantive defeat.

The strength of the Republican’s allies is portrayed by the 4 of Bottles (Cups) reversed, which delivers a message similar to the reversed 5 of Bills, in this case “dissolution.” It suggests that key allies will jump ship at the eleventh hour like they did during Trump’s first term when they strove to escape being tarnished by his reputation and summarily run out of town.

The 2 of TVs (Swords) reversed for the Democrats’ allies depicts the rancorous disagreement that is poised to erode the power of both blocs to the overall detriment of the party’s chances. Swords is a divisive suit and Two is a number that indicates a divergence of opinion among the inner circle of the party machine, while the reversal shows that they could be moving farther apart rather than closer together.

With the Emperor in the “Chance to Win” position, the majority of Republicans will most likely rally behind “Trump the Enabler,” which may not be a great idea given the mood of the country. However, there is still a fair amount of momentum in that political engine and it could be enough to carry the day.

The Democrats’ “Chance to Win” is vested in “Mona” (the High Priestess). This signifies an unfocused perspective that pits idealism against pragmatism, and it may not come into sharp relief until right before Election Day. The question is whether that new-found clarity will be “too little, too late.” If someone in the party has an “Ace up their sleeve,” they might want to play it sooner rather than later. The High Priestess is usually a card of profound, mystical reflection but in the service of polemics it can become one of opaque deflection in the form of rhetoric that seeks to confuse critics and steer them away from controversial debate.

As far as comparing the “Chance to Win” cards to the “Opportunity” card to assess symbolic alignment, I sometimes think of the Chariot as the Emperor’s “mobile throne” when he is out on campaign, so in the Republicans’ case there is a natural affinity between the two cards. Regarding the relationship between the Chariot and the High Priestess, A.E. Waite said that if the Charioteer “came to the pillars of that Temple between which the High Priestess is seated, he could not open the scroll called Tora, nor if she questioned him could he answer.” If the public is the Inquisitor, the Charioteer can’t afford to appear irresolute. The implication is that the ideological gulf between the Democratic Party’s mainstream and its ultra-progressive wing may be too wide for the pair to bridge in the time remaining.

The Lovers as the “Decision” card is really no help at all in reaching a conclusion. However, as an active and positive Air card, it is more supportive of the Fire of “Dad” and less attuned to the Water of “Mona.” In no way does it mend any fences between the two political postures, which I would say are as far apart as they have ever been in recent times. Despite the title, there is no romance of convenience in the offing (these guys aren’t Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill). About all that can be said is that a decision will be made that will bring closure to this particular chapter in US politics with no loose ends to tie up since the majority of voters will be satisfied that they made the right choice. Then we can wait two more years for another chance to “throw the rascals out” and invite another batch in.

Summary: As things stand, these cards hang together slightly better for the Republican Party due to the dominance of “Trump the Enabler” as the upright Emperor, even though they will have to contend with desertions in the ranks. That advantage is underscored by the fractures that have been widening between the far-left extremists and the more moderate majority of the Democratic Party, along with the shrill jeremiad against “Trump the Adversary” that has become a monotonous drum-beat. The only thing that might change that outlook is a rapprochement in the intra-party fued between now and early November. Democrats must either close ranks or suffer the consequences; relying entirely on hate-fueled voter disaffection and progressive pipe-dreams is a dicey strategy since public displeasure can turn on a dime and bite the unwary.